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The fundamental problems related to uncertainty in quantitative risk analyses, used in decision making in safety-related issues (for instance, in land use planning and licensing procedures for hazardous establishments and activities) are presented and discussed, together with the different types of uncertainty that are introduced in the various stages of an analysis. A survey of methods for the pr
The present thesis concerns methods and knowledge that are useful when analysing the risks and vulnerabilities of complex systems in a societal emergency management context. Operational definitions of vulnerability and emergency response capabilities are suggested and two methods for analysing the vulnerability of critical infrastructure networks, based on the suggested definition, are presented.
An operational definition of vulnerability is proposed. The definition is used to describe and analyse different methods for risk and vulnerability analysis. Several problems related to analysing the vulnerability of a complex sociotechnical system to a specific perturbation are identified and discussed. Suggestions of how risk- and vulnerability analyses can be performed for such systems are pres
OBJECTIVES: This is the first nationwide study with the aim to analyze whether there is an association between country of birth in first-generation immigrants and hospitalization for type 2 diabetes (T2D), and to study whether any such association remains in second-generation immigrants. DESIGN: In this follow-up study, the Swedish Hospital Discharge Register was used to identify all hospital
In the developed countries the public expect society to be prepared for, and step in, if something out of the ordinary happens. This public pressure appears to have increased the demand for crisis preparedness planning. In crisis management the local authority serves as the first line of defence and will more or less always be involved in responding to crises. It is therefore important to study ho
Information from performed risk and vulnerability analyses, evaluation of responses in relation to actual emergencies etcetera can be very useful in efforts directed at preventing, mitigating and/or preparing for future emergencies. This thesis focuses on the development of methods for such analysis and evaluation. A general process for systematic design of methods is introduced and discussed and
This paper presents a case study of decision-making at the design stage of a socio-technical system where resilience at the global level of the system was constrained by the local perspectives adopted by the different stakeholders. The study is based on interviews with key decision-makers involved in the design stage of six railway tunnel projects in Sweden. The results show that differences in ro
The importance of family history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in cancer patients is unclear. We conducted a nationwide study to determine whether family history of VTE is a risk factor for hospitalized VTE in cancer patients.
Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be es
We present a web-based method for mapping various relations between agents that have been involved in an emergency response operation. The method is based on combining a web-questionnaire with telephone interviews and it provides an efficient way of collecting large amount of information concerning the agents. By using the resulting network of agents it is possible to perform various network analy
Risk preferences related to accidents or other situations involving the possibility of multiple fatalities were studied in 87 persons in Sweden belonging to two separate groups with professional or educational knowledge of risk- and crisis-management issues. Use was made of a tradeoff method, the results obtained consisting of von Neuman-Morgenstern utility functions over the range of 0-1000 fatal
Familial risk of ovarian cancer is well-established but whether ovarian cancer clusters with other cancers and the clusters differ by histology remains uncertain. Using data from the Swedish Family-Cancer Database, we explored familial associations of ovarian cancer with other cancers with a novel approach; relative risk for (histology-specific) ovarian cancer was estimated in families with patien
Purpose: The substantial literature showing that offspring of parents with alcohol use disorder (AUD) is at increased risk for externalizing psychopathology rarely examines the differential effects of parental and offspring sex. This literature also has other important limitations, such as modest sample sizes and use of unrepresentative samples. Using a large, nationwide Swedish sample, we aim to
