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Within a UN Joint Programme titled “Enhancing the Capacity of Turkey to Adapt to Climate Change” a systems approach workshop was carried out in Adana, Turkey with broad stakeholder participation. The participants applied systems thinking approach, causal loop diagramming methodology and systems analysis to examine the potential impacts of projected climatic changes on natural ecosystems and socio-
In this paper we show that several metals, elements and energy resources are about to run into scarcity within the next decades, and most elements within some centuries. A new global systems model was assembled to analyse this scarcity as a continuation of the model used in the Limits-to-Growth World3 model. We show that this scarcity will lead to “peak wealth”, “peak population”, “peak costs”, “p
Mollusks have received increasing interest in ecotoxicological studies but so far the available scientific analyses of how their genes are affected by anthropogenic pollutants are scarce. The focus of this study is to identify an estrogen receptor (er) gene in the common prosobranch snail Bithynia tentaculata and to test a hypothesis that 17α-Ethinylestradiol (EE2) will modulate er gene expression
By using an integrated dynamic model we are able to reconstruct the supply and gold price of the past (1920-2010) and this is used to predict the future supply of gold to the market and to make a forecast of the goldprice 2010-2100. The model was validated against field data for the period 1920-2010 and it performs well. The model GOLD is implemented in the STELLA® software and the model described
The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami hit coastal cities in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures of Tohoku Region devastating the energy supply system in the region. Electricity and fuel shortages caused severe problems in the city of Kamaishi varying from lack of mobility, communication, heating to reduced health conditions. This paper, aims to analyze the impacts of the earthquake and t
We studied the relative contribution of each sex and total effort expended in feeding nestlings in the great tit Parus major in relation to artificially altered brood size. A recent model suggests that feeding frequency should reflect the optimal trade-off between parental and fledgling survival, the former being negatively, the latter positively, influenced by high feeding frequencies. In both se
This study reports an aviary experiment aimed at determining what affects social dominance in the great tit (Parus major), especially why older birds (adults) in nature normally dominate younger ones (juveniles). When birds were matched with respect to age, prior residency determined dominance. Without a difference in prior residency older birds dominated younger ones. However, when juvenile birds
In the Marsh Tit Parus palustris, breeding performance improved with the age of both the male and the female parent-older birds produced larger clutches earlier in the season. The effect of male age, however, was mainly due to a positive association with the age of the female. When the effect of laying date was accounted for, there was no additional effect of female age on clutch-size. However, pa
A cross-fostering experiment demonstrated that tarsus length of European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) was heritable. The tarsus length of the foster-parent had no effect. A full-sib resemblance analysis showed that sibs were much more similar in tarsus length than explained by heritability alone. This was partly due to an effect of female mating status on offspring tarsus length. When nestling gro
In this paper we show that nestling mass hierarchies in the European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) are due to asynchronous hatching. The parents may, by starting to incubate the day the penultimate egg is laid, or earlier, affect the degree of hatching asynchrony and thereby the nestling weight hierarchy. Intra-clutch variation in egg size had no effect on nestling weight hierarchies, explaining onl
A novel formulation of the theory of parent-offspring conflict is proposed. The basis of this formulation is an application of traditional life-history theory in combination with simple genetic arguments. The advanatage with this approach is conceptual, and the formulation is not in variance with earlier studies in the area. Parent-offspring conflict is, in our forumlation, not seen as a conflict
In polygynous passerines, males of some species provide food for their nestlings, but male incubation seems to be rare. In the European starling both the mating system and the extent to which males help with incubation vary. This enabled the relationship between mating system and male incubation to be investigated. The extent to which males provided care to a particular nest depended on mating sta
Males should invest in mate attraction, mate guarding and paternal care in relation to the marginal fitness value of each of those behaviours. Since time and energy are limited, trade-offs between these activities are expected. This study demonstrates that monogamous male European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) decrease their paternal effort in response to increased opportunities to attract addition
In altricial birds, growth rates and nestling morphology vary between broods. For natural selection to produce evolutionary change in these variables, there must exist heritable variation. Since nestling traits are not any longer present in parents, traditional offspring-parent regressions cannot estimate heritabilities of these. In this study, a partial cross-fostering experiment was performed, w
The extent to which male birds in polygynous species with biparental care assist in nestling feeding often varies considerably between nests of different mating status. Both how much polygynous males assist and how they divide their effort between nests may have a profound effect on the evolution of mating systems. In this study we investigated how males in the facultatively polygynous European st
This paper provides a systemic analysis of complex dynamic issues associated with resource use, scarcity and efficiency by applying systems thinking with respect to sustainability criteria. Casual loop diagramming methodology is adopted to create a conceptual model to better understand the interconnected patterns, cause effect relations and feedbacks between the three dynamic complex systems that
Climate change and disasters pose a serious risk to sustainable development. In the South local coping strategies are an important element of adaptation to climate and disaster risk. Such strategies have arisen because of the limited assistance provided by urban actors and associated social security and governance systems. In contrast, in the North local coping strategies are comparatively poorly
