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Integrated Modelling of the Global Cobalt Extraction, Supply, Price and Depletion of Extractable Resources Using the WORLD6 Model

The global cobalt cycle in society was modelled using an integrated systems dynamics model, WORLD6, integrating several earlier system dynamics models developed by the authors. The COBALT sub-model was used to assess the long-term sufficiency of the available extractable cobalt and address the effect of different degrees of recycling on cobalt supply. The extraction of cobalt is mostly dependent o

A Simple System Dynamics Model for the Global Production Rate of Sand, Gravel, Crushed Rock and Stone, Market Prices and Long-Term Supply Embedded into the WORLD6 Model

A model for global supply of sand, gravel and cut stone for construction based on a system dynamics model was developed for inclusion in the WORLD6 model. The Sand-Gravel-Stone model simulates production and market supply, demand and price for natural sand and gravel, sand and gravel from crushed rock and cut stone. The model uses market mechanisms where the demand is depending on population size,

Time of scarcity horizons for technology metals, precious metals, base metals, superalloy metals, battery technology metals and infrastructure materials.

We have built a system dynamics model, WORLD6, that takes into account population, energy extraction, production and need, aspects social behaviour, material and metals recycling and important links to the economy. The model is ground-truthed by comparing with actual supply per person from 1900 till 2015 and run until 2400. Primary scarcity metrics are supply per person and year and stock-in-use p

The WORLD6 model for evaluation of natural resource sustainability considering metals, materials, energy, population and food.

A new model; WORLD6 was developed. WORLD6 differs from the earlier system dynamics world models in several aspects. Several modules link the economy, materials, metals, energy, population and politics in a dynamic system. The present version is a result of a dismantling of the World3 model (Meadows et al., 1972, 1992, 2004) with an extension and substitution of its resource module and economy modu

Greenhouse gas emissions of methanol from co-gasification of black liquor with by-product biomass

En hållbar omställning av transportsystemet kan komma att kräva olika typer av bränslen, tekniker och infrastrukturförändringar, och som ett möjligt alternativ finns biodrivmedel. En potentiell resurs för biodrivmedelsproduktion i Sverige är svartlut, en ligninrik biprodukt från pappers- och massaindustrin, som kan förgasas och omvandlas till metanol. Mängden svartlut som finns tillgänglig begräns

Antimicrobial Peptides in Cutaneous Wound Healing

Injury that breached the physical skin barrier increases the likelihood of infection. The wound healing process is divided into hemostasis, inflammation, proliferation, and tissue remodeling. Antimicrobial peptides play a major role for the antimicrobial defense at all these stages in wound healing, but the main sources of antimicrobial peptides vary with the different stages of wound healing comi

HIV-1 transmission networks in high risk fishing communities on the shores of Lake Victoria in Uganda : A phylogenetic and epidemiological approach

Background: Fishing communities around Lake Victoria in sub-Saharan Africa have been characterised as a population at high risk of HIV-infection. Methods: Using data from a cohort of HIV-positive individuals aged 13–49 years, enrolled from 5 fishing communities on Lake Victoria between 2009–2011, we sought to identify factors contributing to the epidemic and to understand the underlying structure

Estimating critical extraction rates for the main metals for a sustainable society within the planetary limits

The critical rates of extraction of some metals was explored using a methodology based on the thinking behind critical loads for sulphur and nitrogen deposition developed in Europe 1990-2010. With a long term sustainability view in mind, critical rates based on 5,000 and 10,000 years were estimated and found to widely exceed the present extraction rates. Huge advances in recycling, as well as a si

Substitution of metals in times of potential supply limitations: What are the mitigation options and limitations?

Global production rates of metals vary from iron at 1.4 billion ton per year to platinum with 200 ton per year. Resource scarcity starts to manifest itself in rising prices and supply limitations, and metal substitution has been a major argument among economists when putting considerations of resource scarcity aside. Here we investigate the potential limits to metal substitution. Present consumpti

Modelling the copper, zinc and lead mining rates and co-extraction of dependent metals, supply, price and extractable amounts using the BRONZE model

The total resources form copper, zinc and lead was estimated from a reworking of the literature. The data was used as input to the integrated systems dynamics model BRONZE, and used to estimate the global supply of these metals and the by-products antimony, indium, germanium, tellurium, cadmium, bismuth and selenium. The runs show that copper, zinc and lead go through peak production around 2050 a

Modelling the global primary extraction, supply, price and depletion of the extractable geological resources using the COBALT model.

The global supply of cobalt was simulated by combining 3 different system dynamics models; BRONZE, PGM and STEEL. The present use of cobalt shows a low degree of recycling and systemic losses are significant. The reserves of cobalt are not very large (20-25 million ton extractable) as compared to metals like copper, zinc or iron, and after 2170 cobalt will have run out under a business-as-usual sc