Are Central Bankers Inflation Nutters? An MCMC Estimator of the Long-Memory Parameter in a State Space Model
Inflation targeting is a common monetary policy regime. Inflation targets are often flexible in the sense that the central bank allows inflation to temporarily deviate from the target to avoid causing unnecessary volatility in the real economy. In this paper, we propose modeling the degree of flexibility using an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model. Assuming that tInflation targeting is a common monetary policy regime. Inflation targets are often flexible in the sense that the central bank allows inflation to temporarily deviate from the target to avoid causing unnecessary volatility in the real economy. In this paper, we propose modeling the degree of flexibility using an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model. Assuming that t